Cardio and BMI

When I run I use my Apple watch. This gives me (in the Health app) an estimate of my V02Max. Supposedly it is accurate and my number is usually around 44.7. 

I wanted a second opinion so I went to our YMCA which Egym machines which are pretty fun machines for weight lifting etc.  They give results on a variety of measurement. I finally managed to do their cardio test which is treadmill running to exhaustion (it took me 16 minutes tp get to 163 bpm. Note, supposed max BPM is 155bpm).

Apparently, I have the flexibilty of a 63 year old, the strength of a 34 year old, the cardio of a 28 year old and the metabolism of a 69 year old (thanks to the archaic BMI tests!),

Now I just need to grow 4 inches taller to fix the BMI problem

I decided to fix the stupid BMI measurement by looking at the BMR (Basal Metabolic Rate). There are two ways to estimate this.

 BMR = 10W + 6.25H - 5A + 5

 BMRF = 370 + 21.6(1 - F)W

Where H = height = 165cms tall (5’ 5”), W = weight = 77kg (170 lbs), A = age = 67 years old and F = body Fat which you allegedly can get from the stupid BMI via

For men, F = (1.20 x BMI) + (0.23 x Age) – 16.2, while for women, F = (1.20 x BMI) + (0.23 x Age) – 5.4.

Also, BMI = W/H*H

So my BMI = 28.3%

and hence my F = 33%

So my BMR = 1,476 cal/day and my BMRF = 1,487 cal day

However, 4 years ago dexascan measured my body fat at 23%. I tried 3 body fat calculators (which use waist, neck, arm measurements as well as age, height, weight) give my body fat = 25%. So this  puts my BMRF = 1617 cal/day

Hello.

I used DeepSeek to write this story. I prompted it with:-

"I need a plot for a story which is an allegory of Donald Trumps political life written like Jonathan Swift would write."

It wrote this plot outline for a satirical allegory inspired by Donald Trump's political life, written in the style of Jonathan Swift—sharp, biting, and laced with absurdity and moral critique.

Interesting work. Fun writing

Norm 

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Title: The Great Gilded Peacock: A Tale of Feathers and Folly

Setting: The fantastical kingdom of Nouveau Richesse, a land obsessed with wealth, spectacle, and self-promotion, where the loudest voice often drowns out reason.

Plot Summary:

In the bustling, gaudy kingdom of Nouveau Richesse, a flamboyant Peacock rises to power. This Peacock, named Lord Goldplume, is no ordinary bird. His feathers shimmer with a false brilliance, each one inscribed with boasts of his own greatness. He builds towering monuments to himself—golden towers that pierce the clouds—and claims they are the tallest, the grandest, the most luxurious in all the land. Yet, the towers are hollow, filled with nothing but hot air and the echoes of his own voice.

Lord Goldplume begins as a court jester, entertaining the masses with his outrageous antics and grandiose claims. He amasses a following of loyal admirers, who are dazzled by his glittering plumage and his promises to "make Nouveau Richesse glorious again." He rails against the established order, blaming the kingdom's woes on the "nattering crows" (the intellectuals) and the "migratory geese" (immigrants), who he claims are stealing the worms from the hardworking local sparrows.

Through a combination of cunning, charisma, and sheer volume, Goldplume ascends to the throne. His reign is marked by chaos and spectacle. He surrounds himself with sycophantic parrots who repeat his every word, no matter how absurd. He declares war on the neighboring kingdom of Veritas, a land of truth-tellers, claiming their honesty is a threat to Nouveau Richesse's prosperity. Yet, his battles are fought not with swords, but with tweets—short, cryptic messages fired from a magical device called the Twittermajig.

As Goldplume's reign progresses, the kingdom descends into farce. The Peacock's policies are as flimsy as his feathers, and his promises crumble under scrutiny. He builds a great wall to keep out the "invading starlings," but it is made of papier-mâché and collapses in the first storm. He hosts lavish feasts, but the food is rotten, and the guests are left hungry. Yet, his followers remain loyal, convinced that any criticism of Goldplume is a plot by the "deep-nested owls" to undermine him.

In the end, Goldplume's reign collapses under the weight of its own absurdity. The kingdom is left in ruins, its coffers empty, its people divided. The Peacock flees to a distant land, where he continues to preen and boast, but his once-adoring followers begin to see through the glittering facade. The tale ends with a cautionary note: Beware the leader who values spectacle over substance, for their reign will be as fleeting as a feather in the wind.

Themes and Allegory:

• Lord Goldplume: Represents Donald Trump, with his flamboyant personality, self-aggrandizement, and reliance on spectacle.
• Nouveau Richesse: A satirical take on modern America, with its obsession with wealth and celebrity.
• The Nattering Crows and Migratory Geese: Represent intellectuals and immigrants, frequent targets of Trump's rhetoric.
• The Twittermajig: A stand-in for Twitter, Trump's preferred platform for communication.
• The Great Wall: A nod to Trump's proposed border wall, rendered absurd and ineffective in the story.
• The Deep-Nested Owls: A jab at the "deep state" conspiracy theories often invoked by Trump and his supporters.

Tone and Style:

The story is written in Swift's signature style—witty, exaggerated, and dripping with irony. It employs absurdity to highlight the flaws and follies of its characters, using the Peacock's ridiculous behavior to critique the real-world actions of Donald Trump. The narrative is both humorous and cutting, inviting readers to laugh even as they reflect on the deeper moral and political implications.

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This allegory, like Swift's Gulliver's Travels, uses fantastical elements to critique real-world figures and societal trends, blending humor with pointed social commentary.

 Dark Stars from the Big Bang

The conventional view of star formation says that the first stars formed just after the big bang (200 million years) by the fusion of hydrogen nuclei (protons) to form helium. These so-called population III stars were around 100 times the mass of the sun. As such they’d be super hot and burn through their hydrogen fuel really fast.

The trouble is where are they? We should be able to see them if we look far enough out (remember in this expanding universe, that means far enough back too). Well, where are they? 

A new theory says perhaps there are none and that instead they were “dark stars”. If you recall, most (85%) of the universe is just dark matter. We can tell this because of its gravitational effects. Dark matter emits no light but it has mass and therefore it has gravitational pull. Now, we can tell how massive a galaxy is by counting how many stars it has and how massive they are. Many galaxies, including our own, the Milky Way, are spinning so fast that the stars should have been flung out of the galaxy. So something must be pulling them back in and that something is, we postulate, dark matter. The Milky Way is about 95% dark matter! In fact, if it wasn’t for this dark matter, none of the galaxies would have formed!

We don’t know exactly what dark matter is, but maybe it’s WIMPs (weakly interacting massive particles). 

Dark stars were postulated because it was noticed that WIMPS can produce energy. Now, normal stars make energy by fusing smaller particles to make bigger one (like hydrogens to make a helium). WIMPS have two forms like matter and anti-matter and if you bang them together they annihilate each other in a burst of energy. To do this, you need a hydrogen and helium cloud with 0.1% dark matter in its center. This cloud starts off at say 1 astronomical unit (au) which is 93 million miles in radius – it’s like our sun expanded up so that we’re actually inside it (like a red giant*). At these densities the WIMPS annihilate each other and make energy, but not enough to ignite like a normal nuclear fusion reaction but enough to make the cloud glow (about 10,000 deg C). As the cloud is big and warm but not hot, it can continue to grow. It could become 10,000 times bigger and a million times more massive than the sun. Ok, they misnamed these stars as they could shine brighter than a billion suns!

But unfortunately, there isn’t much dark matter inside this cloud so eventually it would all be used up and the star would collapse. Now it’s unlikely that any such stars survive but they’d be hard to miss although they’d be very, very far away – right at the edge of the universe. Now the wonderful new  JWST telescope is almost able to see that far, so who knows?

The JWST telescope can see stars at the edge of the universe, but they’re fuzzy and faint and there are too many of them as the early universe should’ve been fairly dark. Some recent computer simulations conclude that dark star formation would reduce the polulation III star formation. So maybe these stars are the population III stars and not the dark stars. We need a better telescope :)

*Red giants – when our sun dies it starts by running out of hydrogen to convert into helium so the center of the sun will collapse and heat up. This will make the outer layers to swell up. It will get really big, engulfing the earth and inner planets. More fun stuff will happen after that! But this is 4 billion years down the road :)

 

The beginning of the end for Trump!

Trump will fail! I was very angry after hearing Trump’s inauguration yesterday but then I realized that it was actually good news. Trump said he wanted to be the Great Unifier and make America great again. Well, firstly, wasn’t he going to do that last time? Did it work? Obviously not. Secondly Trump then launched into a vitriolic, obnoxious barrage of insults against Biden and his administration. Unprecedented, unpresidential, unscripted, uncontrollable anger. This is hardly likely to coerce the cooperation of the Democrats and will quite possibly cause the few moderate and civic-minded Republicans to question their unswerving allegiance to the Donald. Is Trump unstable? Is he demented - in the medical sense of the term? Is it wise to bow the knee, sorry, to grovel before the ravings and rabid exhortations of this moronic narcissist? Will they regret abasing and debasing themselves so thoroughly? Are the rewards worth it? Well, perhaps they should ask Musk. Trump totally and deliberately and publicly dissed his Kingmaker yesterday. Is that what a $500 million bribe gets you? 

Trump has the majority in government but in the Congress it is razor thin. He wanted to make one giant bill containing all his goodies so he could fix everything in one go. Sounds like he didn’t learn much in his first term. Then Musk declared that the promise of 2 trillion dollars in expense savings was just a pipe dream (like many of Musk’s ideas). So time for a distraction - let's invade Panama, let's buy or maybe invade Greenland. Shiny things for the Maga base.

Trump's big ideas will fail. He has ensured that the Democrats will fight him to the bitter end and maybe even his own party will not be united in passing his tax the poor and give to the rich schemes. He will fail miserably in anything that requires constitutional change - 75% of all States must ratify these proposals.

Trump will not even succeed with his “Tariffs not Taxes” proposals. He wasn’t very successful last time either. Basically, he cannot upset the stock market. So many of his brown-nosing supporters like the Tech Barons are just greedy self-serving suckups and if inflation stays high or the market doesn’t fly then Trump can wave them bye-bye. 

Of course, Trump could kill a lot of Americans like he did last time if there’s another pandemic (remember, bird flu, H1N1, is possible). RFK Jnr leading the Department of Health will be the death knell for millions of Americans.

Side note on nastiness: I heard that Maga supporters are pissed off with NPR failing to support Trump and many non-Maga people being mean, nasty and bad tempered. Well, to them - go back and read Trump's barrage of insults against his “enemies” the Democrats. That is how your mighty leader, the great and wonderful Great Unifier leads his team out onto the field. 

Such hate filled vitriol is what Maga deifies! Trump will fail and all his Imperial and dictatorial ambitions will not ruin America. See you at the mid-terms :)

We're doomed? Another Trump presidency in the USA

The US Republican party has long led the world in fear mongering. China has been expanding its influence under President Xi for many years. Putin wants to restore Russia to his vision of its great and glorious super-power past. Climate change is causing droughts and floods and ruining agriculture in more areas like Syria and northern Africa.

Now that the Republicans are in power it seems inevitable to expect more militantism and militarism? 

But now the stakes are real, they are global and the US Republicans' key solution, mass deportations, are worse than applying a band aid to a broken leg, it will exacerbate the situation. The real solution is cooperation, not confrontation.

Attending to the demands of Putin, Netanyahu and Xi, erecting a Mexican wall and mass deportations will not stop wars or refugees. Myopia brought Trump back to power but refugees who are starving or made homeless by wars will move. They have nothing to lose. Europe may feel the brunt of the refugee flood, although the escalating threat of the Russian war machine may deflect an even greater flood to the US. There is a way out. The military expansion must be stopped and climate change must be addressed. This will require leadership, diplomacy and compassion. Some previous US leaders may have been up to this daunting task. The Trump regime cannot see past its own navel. 

Questions on the current election

1. Did we lose because :-

a) normal voting dems stayed away

b) Reps recruited more first time voters

c) Normal voting Dems flipped

2. What percentage of voters did not vote (cf to average election)

3. Did a Rep strategy flip Dem voters

4. Did a Dem strategy flip Dem voters

5. Did an outside strategy flip Dem voters (eg Russia, the media etc)

Questions on next 4 years

1. What is our start point - inflation, unemployment, GDP, global snapshot, the environment etc

2. What has Trump threatened to do - tariffs, Ukraine, Nato, immigration, healthcare, environment etc

3. How is the US doing after 1, 2 3, 4 years?

4. How is the world doing after 1, 2 3, 4 years?

Answers:

<BBC radio> 

1. Most Latino men (54%) voted republican. Perhaps in protest at the Dems treating them as a monolithic block and asking them how they'll feel when Trump starts deportations. Dems need new approach.

2. People are amused by Trump - it's a personality cult

3. Biden took Trumps deportation stance and did even more

4. Trump got the black vote as they also believe in deportation

5. Harris was an afterthought - Dems should have chosen a proper candidate

6. Trump convinced the Working Class that he could make their lives better

7. Dems should shut up about their Woke issues and focus on placating the working class

8. Biden should have dropped out much earlier

<Me>

Inflation/cost of living stories stuck in the mind of the working class - people wanted change

<the Atlantic>

Inflation hit hard. Prices stayed high. People refused to believe they were better off!

Predictions

1. Trump will withdraw Ukraine support who will sign peace deal ceding much of country to Russia

2. Israel will delete Palestine. Huge refugee crisis for Europe - none allowed into USA

3. Russia will take over Moldova and start on other countries

4. China will plan Taiwan invasion

5. Tariffs will increase inflation to 9%

6. Unemployment will increase to 5%

7. All US courts will turn Republican

8. Oil price will decrease as drilling expands

9. Climate will deteriorate - EPA will be neutralized

10. Abortion will be banned

11. Trump will appoint enemies to all key posts

12. Kennedy will ban vaccines and fluoride

13. Obamacare will be deleted .... no! he's tried and failed before but he will trim it.

14. Food/housing prices soar as immigrants disappear

15. Crime will increase

16. Student debts will increase and not be forgiven

17. Trump will stop all court cases against himself and his friends

18. Medical costs will soar

19. Democracy in the US may end - through increased gerry mandering and voting rights restrictions

20. Trump will try to dumb-down k12 education (dumb voters vote Trump!). States will have to pay for proper education. This will save Federal money and drive teachers away. The "Free university" will fail.

Previous Trump admin record <Politico>

Summary: 

Hurt workers/poor in overtime pay, safety, harassment, food aid, black housing and student debt. Tax cuts for rich. bad bank safety

Hurt environment through EPA, car exhaust, toxics control, env reviews

Hurt world - exited WTO, imposed tariffs, insulted everyone

Good things - fought monopolies and financial crime

Blatherings - Obamacare, anti-Russia/China

1. Hurt public by :-

  a. reducing work safety

  b. stopped many workers getting overtime pay

  c. stopped workers from fighting harrassment from their employers

  d. reduced food aid for the poor

  e. made it harder for blacks to get housing

  f. increased students being swindled (more debts) 

2. reduced global trade - exited WTO

3. Put religion back into schools

4. cut taxes - a sugar high - bad for the economy 

5. Increased global warming by:-

  a. gutted the EPA

  b. made cars more polluting

  c. decreased toxic chemical regulation

  d. reduced environmental overview of infrastructure projects

  e. increased oil production

6. reduced legal immigration (H1B)

7. reduced banking safety measures

8. Good things Turmp did :-

  a. increased prosecution of financial crimes

  b. supported Obamacare (accidentally)

  c. fought corporate monopolies

  d. made policies to confront Russia/China

9. helped farmers (hit by foreign tariffs retaliating against US tariffs)

Biden's economic legacy (compiled 9nov24)

created 16 million jobs, grown economy by 12.6%

GDP $29,350 billion … grown for last 10 quarters

GDP/capita $65,020 (2023) 

GDP growth 2.8%

unemployment 4.1%

Inflation 4.1%

Fed funds rate 4.83%

House income $80,610

home credit card debt $10,700 wallethub

NAtional debt $30.9 trillion

exports $268 billion

imports #352 billion

Trde deficit $84 billion????

buget deficit $1.8 trillion

budget balance-$1.05 trillion

real personal spending $47,783 … seems very high!

ratio expenditure/GDP 36.8%

military spending $877 billion ($2,220/person in 2015 dollars)

Bond yields 30yr:4.5% 5yr 4.12%

Pop growth 0.38%

fertility 1.66 kids/woman

death rate 10.4/1,000