Leapin' About

The US Republican party has long led the world in fear mongering. China has been expanding its influence under President Xi for many years. Putin wants to restore Russia to his vision of its great and glorious super-power past. Climate change is causing droughts and floods and ruining agriculture in more areas like Syria and northern Africa.

Now that the Republicans are in power it seems inevitable to expect more militantism and militarism?

But now the stakes are real, they are global and the US Republicans' key solution, mass deportations, are worse than applying a band aid to a broken leg, it will exacerbate the situation. The real solution is cooperation, not confrontation.

Attending to the demands of Putin, Netanyahu and Xi, erecting a Mexican wall and mass deportations will not stop wars or refugees. Myopia brought Trump back to power but refugees who are starving or made homeless by wars will move. They have nothing to lose. Europe may feel the brunt of the refugee flood, although the escalating threat of the Russian war machine may deflect an even greater flood to the US. There is a way out. The military expansion must be stopped and climate change must be addressed. This will require leadership, diplomacy and compassion. Some previous US leaders may have been up to this daunting task. The Trump regime cannot see past its own navel.

Questions on the current election

1. Did we lose because :-

a) normal voting dems stayed away

b) Reps recruited more first time voters

c) Normal voting Dems flipped

2. What percentage of voters did not vote (cf to average election)

3. Did a Rep strategy flip Dem voters

4. Did a Dem strategy flip Dem voters

5. Did an outside strategy flip Dem voters (eg Russia, the media etc)

Questions on next 4 years

1. What is our start point - inflation, unemployment, GDP, global snapshot, the environment etc

2. What has Trump threatened to do - tariffs, Ukraine, Nato, immigration, healthcare, environment etc

3. How is the US doing after 1, 2 3, 4 years?

4. How is the world doing after 1, 2 3, 4 years?

Answers:

1. Most Latino men (54%) voted republican. Perhaps in protest at the Dems treating them as a monolithic block and asking them how they'll feel when Trump starts deportations. Dems need new approach.

2. People are amused by Trump - it's a personality cult

3. Biden took Trumps deportation stance and did even more

4. Trump got the black vote as they also believe in deportation

5. Harris was an afterthought - Dems should have chosen a proper candidate

6. Trump convinced the Working Class that he could make their lives better

7. Dems should shut up about their Woke issues and focus on placating the working class

8. Biden should have dropped out much earlier

<Me>

Inflation/cost of living stories stuck in the mind of the working class - people wanted change

Inflation hit hard. Prices stayed high. People refused to believe they were better off!

Predictions

1. Trump will withdraw Ukraine support who will sign peace deal ceding much of country to Russia

2. Israel will delete Palestine. Huge refugee crisis for Europe - none allowed into USA

3. Russia will take over Moldova and start on other countries

4. China will plan Taiwan invasion

5. Tariffs will increase inflation to 9%

6. Unemployment will increase to 5%

7. All US courts will turn Republican

8. Oil price will decrease as drilling expands

9. Climate will deteriorate - EPA will be neutralized

10. Abortion will be banned

11. Trump will appoint enemies to all key posts

12. Kennedy will ban vaccines and fluoride

13. Obamacare will be deleted .... no! he's tried and failed before but he will trim it.

14. Food/housing prices soar as immigrants disappear

15. Crime will increase

16. Student debts will increase and not be forgiven

17. Trump will stop all court cases against himself and his friends

18. Medical costs will soar

19. Democracy in the US may end - through increased gerry mandering and voting rights restrictions

20. Trump will try to dumb-down k12 education (dumb voters vote Trump!). States will have to pay for proper education. This will save Federal money and drive teachers away. The "Free university" will fail.

Previous Trump admin record <Politico>

Summary:

Hurt workers/poor in overtime pay, safety, harassment, food aid, black housing and student debt. Tax cuts for rich. bad bank safety

Hurt environment through EPA, car exhaust, toxics control, env reviews

Hurt world - exited WTO, imposed tariffs, insulted everyone

Good things - fought monopolies and financial crime

Blatherings - Obamacare, anti-Russia/China

1. Hurt public by :-

a. reducing work safety

b. stopped many workers getting overtime pay

c. stopped workers from fighting harrassment from their employers

d. reduced food aid for the poor

e. made it harder for blacks to get housing

f. increased students being swindled (more debts)

2. reduced global trade - exited WTO

3. Put religion back into schools

4. cut taxes - a sugar high - bad for the economy

5. Increased global warming by:-

a. gutted the EPA

b. made cars more polluting

c. decreased toxic chemical regulation

d. reduced environmental overview of infrastructure projects

e. increased oil production

6. reduced legal immigration (H1B)

7. reduced banking safety measures

8. Good things Turmp did :-

a. increased prosecution of financial crimes

b. supported Obamacare (accidentally)

c. fought corporate monopolies

d. made policies to confront Russia/China

9. helped farmers (hit by foreign tariffs retaliating against US tariffs)

Biden's economic legacy (compiled 9nov24)

created 16 million jobs, grown economy by 12.6%

GDP $29,350 billion … grown for last 10 quarters

GDP/capita $65,020 (2023)

GDP growth 2.8%

unemployment 4.1%

Inflation 4.1%

Fed funds rate 4.83%

House income $80,610

home credit card debt $10,700 wallethub

NAtional debt $30.9 trillion

exports $268 billion

imports #352 billion

Trde deficit $84 billion????

buget deficit $1.8 trillion

budget balance-$1.05 trillion

real personal spending $47,783 … seems very high!

ratio expenditure/GDP 36.8%

military spending $877 billion ($2,220/person in 2015 dollars)

Bond yields 30yr:4.5% 5yr 4.12%

Pop growth 0.38%

fertility 1.66 kids/woman

death rate 10.4/1,000

Now that the Republicans are in power it seems

urrent election